nments[749]. Russell was not impressed with
Stuart's shift from mediation to recognition. "I think," he wrote, "we
must allow the President to spend his second batch of 600,000 men before
we can hope that he and his democracy will listen to reason[750]." But
this did not imply that Russell was wavering in the idea that October
would be a "ripe time." Soon he was journeying to the Continent in
attendance on the Queen and using his leisure to perfect his great
plan[751].

Russell's first positive step was taken on September 13. On that date
he wrote to Cowley in Paris instructing him to sound Thouvenel,
_privately_[752], and the day following he wrote to Palmerston
commenting on the news just received of the exploits of Stonewall
Jackson in Virginia, "it really looks as if he might end the war. In
October the hour will be ripe for the Cabinet[753]." Similar reactions
were expressed by Palmerston at the same moment and for the same
reasons. Palmerston also wrote on September 14:

"The Federals ... got a very complete smashing ... even
Washington or Baltimore may fall into the hands of the
Confederates."

"If this should happen, would it not be time for us to
consider whether in such a state of things England and France
might not address the contending parties and recommend an
arrangement upon the basis of separation[754]?"

Russell replied:

"... I agree with you that the time is come for offering
mediation to the United States Government, with a view to the
recognition of the independence of the Confederates. I agree
further that, in case of failure, we ought ourselves to
recognize the Southern States as an independent State. For
the purpose of taking so important a step, I think we must
have a meeting, of the Cabinet. The 23rd or 30th would suit
me for the meeting[755]."

The two elder statesmen being in such complete accord the result of the
unofficial overture to France was now awaited with interest. This,
considering the similar unofficial suggestions previously made by
Napoleon, was surprisingly lukewarm. Cowley reported that he had held a
long and serious conversation with Thouvenel on the subject of mediation
as instructed by Russell on the thirteenth and found a disposition "to
wait to see the result of the elections" in the North. Mercier
apparently had been writing that Southern successes would strengthen the
Northern peace party