with an appeal to
Europe on lines of old friendship and had implied, though he could not
state explicitly, the "noble" cause of the North. He had been met with
what he considered a "cold" and premature as well as unjustifiable
declaration of neutrality. From the first day of the conflict Lyons and
Mercier had been constant in representing the hardships inflicted by the
American war upon the economic interests of their respective countries.
Both men bore down upon the interruption of the cotton trade and Seward
kept repeating that Northern victories would soon release the raw
cotton. He expected and promised much from the capture of New Orleans,
but the results were disappointing. As time went on Seward became
convinced that material interests alone would determine the attitude and
action of Great Britain and France. But the stored supplies were on hand
in the South, locked in by the blockade and would be available when the
war was over _provided_ the war did not take on an uncivilized and
sanguinary character through a rising of the slaves. If that occurred
cotton would be burned and destroyed and cotton supply to Europe would
be not merely a matter of temporary interruption, but one of
long-continued dearth with no certainty of early resumption. Fearing the
growth in England, especially, of an intention to intervene, Seward
threatened a Northern appeal to the slaves, thinking of the threat not
so much in terms of an uncivilized and horrible war as in terms of the
material interests of Great Britain. In brief, considering foreign
attitude and action in its relation to Northern advantage--to the
winning of the war--he would use emancipation as a threat of servile
insurrection, but did not desire emancipation itself for fear it would
cause that very intervention which it was his object to prevent.

His instructions are wholly in line with this policy. In February, 1862,
the Confiscation Bill had been introduced in Congress. In April,
Mercier's trip to Richmond[897] had caused much speculation and started
many rumours in London of plans of mediation[898]. On May 28, Seward
wrote to Adams at great length and especially emphasized two points:
first that while diplomats abroad had hitherto been interdicted from
discussing slavery as an issue in the war, they were now authorized to
state that the war was, in part at least, intended for the suppression
of slavery, and secondly, that the North if interfered with by foreign
nati