ory and
was now doubtful whether the time had come after all for European
overtures to the contestants. October 2 he wrote Russell:

"MY DEAR RUSSELL,

"I return you Granville's letter which contains much
deserving of serious consideration. There is no doubt that
the offer of Mediation upon the basis of Separation would be
accepted by the South. Why should it not be accepted? It
would give the South in principle the points for which they
are fighting. The refusal, if refusal there was, would come
from the North, who would be unwilling to give up the
principle for which they have been fighting so long as they
had a reasonable expectation that by going on fighting they
could carry their point. The condition of things therefore
which would be favourable to an offer of mediation would be
great success of the South against the North. That state of
things seemed ten days ago to be approaching. Its advance has
been lately checked, but we do not yet know the real course
of recent events, and still less can we foresee what is about
to follow. Ten days or a fortnight more may throw a clearer
light upon future prospects.

"As regards possible resentment on the part of the Northerns
following upon an acknowledgment of the Independence of the
South, it is quite true that we should have less to care
about that resentment in the spring when communication with
Canada was open, and when our naval force could more easily
operate upon the American coast, than in winter when we are
cut off from Canada and the American coast is not so safe.

"But if the acknowledgment were made at one and the same time
by England, France and some other Powers, the Yankees would
probably not seek a quarrel with us alone, and would not like
one against a European Confederation. Such a quarrel would
render certain and permanent that Southern Independence the
acknowledgment of which would have caused it.

"The first communication to be made by England and France to
the contending parties might be, not an absolute offer of
mediation but a friendly suggestion whether the time was not
come when it might be well for the two parties to consider
whether the war, however long continued, could lead to any
other result than separation; and whether it might not
therefore be be