se portending positive and
vigorous action, was now evidently in danger of veering far to one side,
if not turning completely about. But the day after Russell seemed to be
considering such an attenuation of the earlier plan as to be content
with a mere suggestion of armistice, a bomb was thrown into the already
troubled waters further and violently disturbing them. This was
Gladstone's speech at Newcastle, October 7, a good third of which was
devoted to the Civil War and in which he asserted that Jefferson Davis
had made an army, was making a navy, and had created something still
greater--a nation[778]. The chronology of shifts in opinion would, at
first glance, indicate that Gladstone made this speech with the
intention of forcing Palmerston and Russell to continue in the line
earlier adopted, thus hoping to bolster up a cause now losing ground.
His declaration, coming from a leading member of of the Cabinet, was
certain to be accepted by the public as a foreshadowing of governmental
action. If Jefferson Davis had in truth created a nation then early
recognition must be given it. But this surmise of intentional pressure
is not borne out by any discovered evidence. On the contrary, the truth
is, seemingly, that Gladstone, in the north and out of touch, was in
complete ignorance that the two weeks elapsed since his letters from
Palmerston and Russell had produced any alteration of plan or even any
hesitation. Himself long convinced of the wisdom of British intervention
in some form Gladstone evidently could not resist the temptation to make
the good news known. His declaration, foreshadowing a policy that did
not pertain to his own department, and, more especially, that had not
yet received Cabinet approval was in itself an offence against the
traditions of British Cabinet organization. He had spoken without
authorization and "off his own bat."

The speculative market, sensitive barometer of governmental policy,
immediately underwent such violent fluctuations as to indicate a general
belief that Gladstone's speech meant action in the war. The price of raw
cotton dropped so abruptly as to alarm Southern friends and cause them
to give assurances that even if the blockade were broken there would be
no immediate outpouring of cotton from Southern ports[779]. On the other
hand, Bright, staunch friend of the North, _hoped_ that Gladstone was
merely seeking to overcome a half-hearted reluctance of Palmerston and
Russell to move