."
(p. 438). And finally: "In this contest wheat won, demonstrating its
importance as a world power of greater significance than cotton" (p.
439). This interesting thesis has been accepted by William Trimble in
"Historical Aspects of the Surplus Food Production of the United States,
1862-1902" (_Am. Hist. Assoc. Reports_, 1918, Vol. I, p. 224). I think
Mr. Schmidt's errors are: (1) a mistake as to the time when recognition
of the South was in governmental consideration. He places it in
midsummer, 1863, when in fact the danger had passed by January of that
year. (2) A mistake in placing cotton and wheat supply on a parity,
since the former could not be obtained in quantity from _any_ source
before 1864, while wheat, though coming from the United States, could
have been obtained from interior Russia, as well as from the maritime
provinces, in increased supply if Britain had been willing to pay the
added price of inland transport. There was a real "famine" of cotton;
there would have been none of wheat, merely a higher cost. (This fact, a
vital one in determining influence, was brought out by George McHenry in
the columns of _The Index_, Sept. 18, 1862.) (3) The fact, in spite of
all Mr. Schmidt's suppositions, that while cotton was frequently a
subject of governmental concern in _memoranda_ and in private notes
between members of the Cabinet, I have failed to find one single case of
the mention of wheat. This last seems conclusive in negation of Mr.
Schmidt's thesis.]

[Footnote 683: Speech at Rochdale, Sept. 1, 1861. Cited in _Hunt's
Merchants Magazine_, Vol. 45, pp. 326-7.]

[Footnote 684: _Ibid._, p. 442.]

[Footnote 685: e.g., The _Times_, Sept. 19, 1861.]

[Footnote 686: To Sumner, Nov. 20, 1861. Mass Hist. Soc. _Proceedings_,
XLVI, p. 97.]

[Footnote 687: _Ibid._, Jan. 11, 1862. Vol. XLV, p. 157.]

[Footnote 688: F.O., Am., Vol. 843. No. 85. Bunch to Russell, June 25,
1862. He reported a general burning of cotton estimating the amount so
destroyed as nearly one million bales.]

[Footnote 689: Rhodes, III, p. 503, leaves the impression that England
was at first unanimous in attributing the cotton disaster to the War.
Also, IV, p. 77. I think this an error. It was the general public belief
but not that of the well informed. Rhodes, Vol. IV, p. 364, says that it
was not until January, 1863, that it was "begun to be understood" that
famine was not wholly caused by the War, but partly by glut.]

[Footnote 690: