iculties[686]." Throughout the fall of 1861 the _Economist_ was
doing its best to quiet apprehensions, urging that due to the "glut" of
manufactured goods short-time must have ensued anyway, pointing out that
now an advanced price was possible, and arguing that here was a
situation likely to result in the development of other sources of supply
with an escape from the former dependence on America. In view of the
actual conditions of the trade, already recounted, these were appealing
arguments to the larger manufacturers, but the small mills, running on
short order supplies and with few stocks of goods on hand were less
easily convinced. They were, however, without parliamentary influence
and hence negligible as affecting public policy. At the opening of the
new year, 1862, Bright declared that "with the spinners and
manufacturers and merchants, I think generally there is no wish for any
_immediate_ change[687]."

Bright's letter of November, 1861, was written before news of the
_Trent_ reached England: that of January, 1862, just after that
controversy had been amicably settled. The _Trent_ had both diverted
attention from cotton and in its immediate result created a general
determination to preserve neutrality. It is evident that even without
this threat of war there was no real cotton pressure upon the
Government. With Northern successes in the spring of 1862 hopes were
aroused that the war would soon end or that at least some cotton
districts would be captured to the relief of England. Seward held out
big promises based on the capture of New Orleans, and these for a time
calmed governmental apprehensions, though by midsummer it was clear that
the inability to secure the country back of the city, together with the
Southern determination to burn their cotton rather than see it fall into
the hands of the enemy, would prevent any great supply from the
Mississippi valley[688]. This was still not a matter of _immediate_
concern, for the Government and the manufacturers both held the opinion
that it was not lack of cotton alone that was responsible for the
distress and the manufacturers were just beginning to unload their
stocks[689]. But in considering and judging the attitude of the British
public on this question of cotton it should always be remembered that
the great mass of the people sincerely believed that America was
responsible for the distress in Lancashire. The error in understanding
was more important than the tr