was made by Mason in March,
1862. "Thus," he concluded, "it is that even in Lancashire and other
manufacturing districts no open demonstration has been made against the
blockade[676]." Manufactures other than cotton were greatly prospering,
in particular those of woollen, flax, and iron. And the theory that the
cotton lords were not, in reality, hit by the blockade--perhaps profited
by it--was bruited even during the war. _Blackwood's Magazine_, October,
1864, held this view, while the _Morning Post_ of May 16, 1864, went to
the extent of describing the "glut" of goods in 1861, relieved just in
the nick of time by the War, preventing a financial crash, "which must
sooner or later have caused great suffering in Lancashire."

Arnold's generalization has been taken to prove that the _immediate_
effect of the Civil War was to save the cotton industry from great
disaster and that there _immediately_ resulted large profits to the
manufacturers from the increased price of stocks on hand. In fact his
description of the situation in December, 1861, as his own later pages
show, was not applicable, so far as manufacturers' profits are
concerned, until the later months of 1862 and the first of 1863. For
though prices might be put up, as they were, goods were not sold in any
large quantities before the fall of 1862. There were almost no
transactions for shipments to America, China, or the Indies[677].
Foreign purchasers as always, and especially when their needs had just
been abundantly supplied by the great output of 1858-60, were not keen
to place new orders in a rising and uncertain market. The English
producers raised their prices, but they held their goods, lacking an
effective market. The importance of this in British foreign policy is
that at no time, until the accumulated goods were disposed of, was there
likely to be any trade eagerness for a British intervention in America.
Their only fear, says Arnold, was the sudden opening of Southern ports
and a rush of raw cotton[678], a sneer called out by the alleged great
losses incurred and patriotically borne in silence. Certainly in
Parliament the members from Lancashire gave no sign of discontent with
the Government policy of neutrality for in the various debates on
blockade, mediation, and cotton supply but one Member from Lancashire,
Hopwood, ever spoke in favour of a departure from neutrality, or
referred to the distress in the manufacturing districts as due to any
other cau