ch Government. On September 30, Mercier, so
Lyons reported, had received a private letter from Thouvenel expressing
great concern over the prospective scarcity of cotton from America, due
to the blockade, and asking Mercier's advice. The latter now informed
Lyons that his reply had outlined the following steps: first, complete
harmony of action between England and France; second, recognition of
Southern independence; third, refusal longer to recognize the blockade;
fourth, England and France to be alert to seize the "favourable moment,"
when the North became disheartened, the present moment not being a good
one[387]. This policy Mercier thought so "bold" that the North would be
deterred from declaring war. The two diplomats held long argument over
this suggestion. Lyons acknowledged the general pressure for cotton, but
thought there was no need of great alarm as yet and also advanced the
idea that in the end Europe would benefit by being forced to develop
other sources of supply, thus being freed from such exclusive
dependence on the United States. Mercier answered that France was in
dire need and could not wait and he urged that mere recognition of the
South would not secure cotton--it was necessary also to break the
blockade. In comment to Russell, Lyons agreed that this was true, but
thought the fact in itself an argument against accepting Mercier's
ideas: "The time is far distant when the intervention of England and
France in the quarrel would be welcomed, or, unless under compulsion,
tolerated by the American peoples." The South had not yet "gone far
enough in establishing its independence to render a recognition of it
either proper or desirable for European powers," and he stated with
emphasis that recognition would _not_ end the war unless there was also
an _alliance_ with the South[388].

In the British Cabinet also, at this same time, attention was being
directed to the question of cotton, not, primarily, by any push from the
British manufacturing interest, but because of queries addressed to it
by the French Minister in London. Russell wrote to Palmerston, referring
to the inquiry of Flahault, "I agree with you that the cotton question
may become serious at the end of the year," but he added that Lindsay
had informed him that in any case cotton could not be brought in the
winter-time from the interior to the Southern ports[389]. In truth any
serious thought given at this time to the question of cotton appears t