d France
had acted. Russia could then also recognize the South without offending
the North. (Russian Archives. Stoeckl to F.O., April 2-14, 1861.
No. 863.)]

[Footnote 388: Russell Papers. Lyons to Russell, Oct. 4, 1861.]

[Footnote 389: Palmerston MS. Russell to Palmerston, Oct. 8, 1861. On
Oct. 7, Lyons wrote to Head, "If we can get through the winter and
spring without American cotton, and keep the peace, we shall attain a
great object." (Lyons Papers.)]

[Footnote 390: F.O., America, 772. No. 585. Lyons to Russell, Oct. 21,
1861.]

[Footnote 391: _Ibid._, Vol. 773. No. 606. Lyons to Russell.
Confidential. Oct. 28, 1861.]

[Footnote 392: Walpole, _Russell_, II, 344.]

[Footnote 393: See _ante_, p. 194.]

[Footnote 394: "The Americans certainly seem inclined to pick a quarrel
with us; but I doubt their going far enough even to oblige us to
recognize the Southern States. A step further would enable us to open
the Southern ports, but a war would nevertheless be a great calamity."
(Maxwell, _Clarendon_, II, 245. Granville to Clarendon. No exact date is
given but the context shows it to have been in October, 1861.)]

[Footnote 395: Ashley, _Palmerston_, II, 218-19. On October 30, Russell
wrote to Gladstone expressing himself as worried about cotton but
stating that the North was about to try to take New Orleans and thus
release cotton. (Gladstone Papers).]

[Footnote 396: Bancroft, _Seward_, II, p. 219. Bancroft cites also a
letter from Seward to his wife showing that he appreciated thoroughly
the probability of a foreign war if France should press on in the
line taken.]

[Footnote 397: F.O., America, Vol. 773. No. 623. Confidential. Lyons to
Russell, Nov. 4, 1861.]

[Footnote 398: _Ibid._, No. 634. Confidential. Lyons to Russell, Nov. 8,
1861. In truth Lyons felt something of that suspicion of France
indicated by Cowley, and for both men these suspicions date from the
moment when France seemed lukewarm in support of England in the matter
of Bunch.]

CHAPTER VII

THE "TRENT"

The _Trent_ affair seemed to Great Britain like the climax of American
arrogance[399]. The Confederate agents sent to Europe at the outbreak of
the Civil War had accomplished little, and after seven months of waiting
for a more favourable turn in foreign relations, President Davis
determined to replace them by two "Special Commissioners of the
Confederate States of America." These were James M. Mason of Virginia,
for Great Br