y important further British modification,
but one which did not reach Lyons until after the conclusion of the
affair at Washington[454]. Meanwhile a notable change had taken place in
American public expressions. It now regarded "the Wilkes affair
unfavourably, and would much prefer it had not occurred at all[455]," a
reaction without question almost wholly caused by the knowledge of the
British demand and the unanimous support given it by the British
public[456]. On Great Britain the alteration in the American tone
produced less effect than might have been expected, and this because of
the persistent fear and suspicion of Seward. His voice, it was felt,
would in the end be the determining one, and if British belief that he
had long sought an occasion for war was correct, this surely was the
time when he could be confident of popular support. Thurlow Weed,
Seward's most intimate political adviser, was now in London and
attempted to disabuse the British public through the columns of the
_Times_. His communication was printed, but his assertion that Seward's
unfriendly utterances, beginning with the "Newcastle story," were
misunderstood, did not convince the _Times_, which answered him at
length[457], and asserted its belief "... that upon his ability to
involve the United States in a war with England, Mr. Seward has staked
his official, and, most probably, also his political existence." The
Duke of Newcastle's report of Seward's remarks, wrote George Peabody
later, "has strongly influenced the Government in war preparations for
several months past[458]." Adams himself, though convinced that Seward's
supposed animosity "was a mistake founded on a bad joke of his to the
Duke of Newcastle," acknowledged that: "The Duke has, however,
succeeded in making everybody in authority here believe it[459]." Surely
no "joke" to an Englishman ever so plagued an American statesman; but
British Ministers founded their suspicions on far more serious reasons,
as previously related[460].

As time passed without an answer from America, British speculation
turned to estimates of the probable conditions of a war. These were not
reassuring since even though postulating a British victory, it appeared
inevitable that England would not escape without considerable damage
from the American navy and from privateers. Americans were "a powerful
and adventurous people, strong in maritime resources, and participating
in our own national familiarity with t