not
be made impenetrable. There was always the chance of a squadron escaping,
and if it escaped towards a critical trade-route, it must be followed.
Hence there were times when the convoy system seriously disturbed our
dispositions, as, for instance, in the crisis of the Trafalgar campaign,
when for a short time our chain of defended areas was broken down by the
escape of the Toulon squadron. That escape eventually forced a close
concentration on the Western Squadron, but all other considerations apart,
it was felt to be impossible to retain the mass for more than two days
owing to the fact that the great East and West Indies convoys were
approaching, and Villeneuve's return to Ferrol from Martinique exposed them
to squadronal attack. It was, in fact, impossible to tell whether the mass
had not been forced upon us with this special end in view.

In the liability to deflection of this kind lay the most serious
strategical objection to the convoy system. It was sought to minimise it by
giving the convoys a secret route when there was apprehension of squadronal
interference. It was done in the case just cited, but the precaution seemed
in no way to lessen the anxiety. It may have been because in those days of
slow communication there could be no such certainty that the secret route
had been received as there would be now.

Modern developments and changes in shipping and naval material have indeed
so profoundly modified the whole conditions of commerce protection, that
there is no part of strategy where historical deduction is more difficult
or more liable to error. To avoid such error as far as possible, it is
essential to keep those developments in mind at every step. The more
important of them are three in number. Firstly, the abolition of
privateering; secondly, the reduced range of action for all warships; and
thirdly, the development of wireless telegraphy. There are others which
must be dealt with in their place, but these three go to the root of the
whole problem.

Difficult as it is to arrive at exact statistics of commerce destruction in
the old wars, one thing seems certain--that the bulk of captures, which
were reckoned in hundreds and sometimes even in thousands, were due to the
action of privateers. Further, it seems certain that, reckoning at least by
numbers, the greater part of the damage was done by small privateers
operating close to their bases, either home or colonial, against coastwise
and local tra