ty at
Northern success, for McClellan, so far as was then known, was steadily,
if slowly, progressing toward a victory. Mercier's most recent
instruction from Thouvenel gave him no authority to urge mediation, yet
he thought the moment opportune for it and strongly urged this plan on
Lyons. The latter's summary of this and his own analysis of the
situation were as follows:

"M. Mercier thinks it quite within the range of possibility
that the South may be victorious both in the battle in
Virginia and in that in Tennessee. He is at all events quite
confident that whether victorious or defeated, they will not
give in, and he is certainly disposed to advise his
Government to endeavour to put an end to the war by
intervening on the first opportunity. He is, however, very
much puzzled to devise any mode of intervention, which would
have the effect of reviving French trade and obtaining
cotton. I should suppose he would think it desirable to go to
great lengths to stop the war; because he believes that the
South will not give in until the whole country is made
desolate and that the North will very soon be led to proclaim
immediate emancipation, which would stop the cultivation of
cotton for an indefinite time.

I listen and say little when he talks of intervention. It
appears to me to be a dangerous subject of conversation.
There is a good deal of truth in M. Mercier's anticipations
of evil, but I do not see my way to doing any good.

If one is to conjecture what the state of things will be a
month or six weeks hence, one may "guess" that McClellan will
be at Richmond, having very probably got there without much
real fighting. I doubt his getting farther this summer, if
so far....

The campaign will not be pushed with any vigour during the
summer. It may be begun again in the Autumn. Thus, so far as
Trade and Cotton are concerned, we may be next Autumn, just
in the situation we are now. If the South really defeated
either or both the Armies opposed to them I think it would
disgust the North with the war, rather than excite them to
fresh efforts. If the armies suffer much from disease,
recruiting will become difficult. The credit of the
Government has hitherto been wonderfully kept up, but it
would not stand a considerable reverse in the field. It is