lte-face_ on the part
of the American Government. As soon as a new crisis arises Mr.
Wilson will, as usual, be in a fearful hurry and bring us to the
brink of war. Whether such a crisis will be precipitated by the
_Sussex_ incident, and whether the President in that case will
shrink from war at the last moment, it is difficult to foretell,
as this question--like all others at the present moment--will be
viewed exclusively from the standpoint of the approaching presidential
election.

[Footnote: *i.e., Without instructions from Berlin.]

"Except for the surprises that are usual over here, things are
at present quite calm. This is due, in the first place, to the
desire for peace shown by the population, who are not anxious to
be disturbed in their congenial occupation of money-making, and
secondly, to the development of the Mexican question. This latter
question stands in the forefront of public interest, and it seems
to be increasingly probable that the punitive expedition against
Villa will lead to a full-dress intervention. A few days ago it
was reported that Villa was defeated, then wounded, and finally
even a prisoner. All this good news proved later to be false and now
Villa is said to have escaped south and won over fresh supporters.
So long as the Mexican question holds the stage here we are, I
believe, safe from an act of aggression on the part of the American
Government.

"On the other hand it looks as though Mr. Wilson were looking for
a fresh way out of the _impasse_ into which his attitude on the
question of the submarine campaign has led him. As I have already
had the honor to cable, Colonel House holds out the prospect of an
early move towards peace by the President. The view is entertained
here, and strengthened by the impressions gathered from Colonel
House, that gradually the stress of circumstances will force all
the neutral Powers into the war. If this happens there will be no
further prospect of the conclusion of peace, as there will be no
one available to set the ball rolling. It is therefore essential
that the foundations of peace should be laid before the world
conflagration spreads any further and finally destroys the prosperity
of every nation. This view may sound like pure theory, but it gains
substance from the fact that it can very well be made to harmonize
with Mr. Wilson's election campaign. In his capacity of founder of
peace in Europe, and peace-maker--i.e., indirectly conqueror--of