hat this
visit should not attract notice I went to stay with other friends
in New Hampshire for the customary American September holidays
(Labor Day). From there I motored to New London, where Colonel House
had been spending the summer. The conversation brought out that the
President considered a postponement of mediation unavoidable, because
the Entente were now filled with hopes of victory in consequence of
Rumania's entry into the war. In all my conversations with Colonel
House we both proceeded from the assumption that an attempt to
bring about American mediation could only succeed provided that
the Entente had given up hope of victory without the entry into the
war of the United States. For this reason Colonel House repeated
his advice that there should be less public talk in Berlin of an
early peace than had hitherto been the case, since in this way we
were betraying weakness and making America's task more difficult.

Colonel House also said that the President now intended to await
the further development of the war, and, if he should be re-elected,
immediately to take steps towards mediation. Before the presidential
election the time was too short for any action, for the Entente
would pay no heed to the mediation of a problematical candidate.

Looking back, I am still convinced even to-day that Colonel House's
estimate of the situation with regard to the President was entirely
correct from the American point of view. Mr. Wilson could only afford
to offer his mediation provided that he was sure of success. For us
the position was in my opinion different. For Germany American
mediation would have been welcome at any time. It would either
succeed and bring about an acceptable peace, or the Entente would
reject Wilson's proposal after we had accepted it. In the latter
case we should score a diplomatic success in Washington which would
make it very difficult for the American Government to enter the
war. The third possibility, that the German Government, after all
that had passed, might refuse Mr. Wilson's mediation, I did not
even consider.

Immediately after my return from New Hampshire I telegraphed the
following to the Foreign Office:

TELEGRAM IN CIPHER NO. 100

"Rye, 6th September, 1916.

"Wilson's mediation postponed until further notice because for
the moment out of question, owing to Rumania's entry into war and
consequent renewed prospect of victory for our enemies. Wilson
thinks he cannot now me