diate before the election, because England
might pay little attention to him until after the election, and
if he were not elected would have nothing further to do with him.
If, however, Wilson wins at the polls, for which the prospect is at
present favorable, and if the war meanwhile remains at a standstill,
the President will at once take steps towards mediation. He thinks
in that case to be strong enough to compel a peace conference.

"Wilson regards it as in the interest of America that neither of
the combatants should gain a decisive victory."

This telegraphic report of my conversation with Colonel House reached
Berlin when they were beginning to grow impatient of the delay in
the peace movement. According to Karl Helfferich's account the
question was discussed at the time between himself, the Imperial
Chancellor and Herr von Jagow. Thereupon, according to General
Ludendorff's "War Memories," "the Chancellor proposed to His Majesty
that instructions should be given to Ambassador Count Bernstorff
to induce the President at the earliest possible moment, and in
any case before the presidential election, to make a peace offer
to the Powers." Herr Helfferich then goes on to report that the
Chancellor cabled to me to question me quite personally as to my
opinion of Wilson as a peace mediator. The accounts of both these
gentlemen are doubtless accurate, but they do not mention that
the inquiry addressed to me did not, nor was intended to, create
a new situation, but had as its sole object to obtain my opinion
as to the prospects of a movement which had long been set on foot.
In the inquiry, as Herr Helfferich also reports, I was informed
that we would evacuate Belgium. This was of course a necessary
preliminary to Mr. Wilson's mediation, which otherwise, in view
of the feeling prevailing in America, would have been entirely
out of the question.

The Chancellor's inquiry read as follows:

TELEGRAM IN CIPHER NO. 74

"Berlin,2nd September, 1916.

"_Confidential._

"Our West Front stands firm. East Front naturally threatened somewhat
by Rumania's declaration of war. Rolling up of front or collapse
of Austria, however, not to be feared. Turkey and Bulgaria to be
relied on. Greece uncertain. Hopes of peace before winter, as result
of Russian or French war-weariness, diminished by this development.
Apparently, if no great catastrophe occurs in East, Wilson's mediation
possible and successful if we guarantee req