ll prospect of ending the
war would vanish if the United States were also drawn in.

"As Wilson always spoke as though he was holding himself in readiness,
in case his services as mediator were required, I told him that
in my opinion there was no prospect of any advances being made
by the belligerent Powers.

"It was obvious that Wilson would have preferred to be directly
encouraged to make peace before the election because in that case
he would have been sure of being re-elected. If, however, he were
re-elected without this, he would have to make up his mind to take
the initiative himself. Result of the poll still very doubtful.
Wilson surprisingly strong, as Hughes has little success as a speaker
and Roosevelt does more harm than good."

To this I received the following reply from the Chancellor:

CIPHER TELEGRAM

"Berlin, 14th October, 1916.

"Demand for unrestricted submarine campaign increasing here with
prolongation of war and improbability of decisive military blow,
without, however, shaking the Government's attitude.

"Direct request for Wilson's mediation still impossible, in view
of favor hitherto shown to Entente, and after last speeches of
Asquith and Lloyd George. Spontaneous appeal for peace, towards
which I again ask you to encourage him, would be gladly accepted
by us. You should point out Wilson's power, and consequently his
duty, to put a stop to slaughter. If he cannot make up his mind
to act alone he should get into communication with Pope, King of
Spain and European neutrals. Such joint action, since it cannot be
rejected by Entente, would insure him re-election and historical
fame.

"BETHMANN-HOLLWEG."

The incident of the Emperor's memorandum closed with the following
telegram sent by me:

CIPHER TELEGRAM

"Washington, 20th October, 1916.

"I thought it better to give memorandum to Gerard for House, as
in this way greater discretion is assured. Latter was incautious
in his utterances to Press here. House will speak with Gerard.
Both gentlemen see Wilson shortly, and are accordingly in constant
touch.

"It is still not to be expected that Wilson will make peace advances
before the election. Nor that he will get into communication with
Pope or King of Spain as hitherto every suggestion of joint action
has met with immovable opposition, chiefly based on tradition.
Meanwhile prospect of Wilson's re-election becomes obviously greater
every day. Should this occur I beli