n it
is well known that the negotiations were carried on under direct
American influence. This, as I have already said, is not what Mr.
Wilson wants. He only wants to play the part of peace-instigator; he
would like to deserve the credit for having brought the combatants
to negotiate one with the other. Such a success would, in view of
the state of feeling here, probably assure his re-election.

"I am therefore convinced that within the next few weeks the President
will institute proceedings with regard to peace, provided that the
enemy offensive continues to prove abortive. Mr. Wilson will then
tell England that he has been obliged on the grounds of domestic
politics to make a sharp protest against the blockade, provided that
peace negotiations have not been opened. For me the question now
arises whether I am to try to stand in the way of these proceedings.
Of course I could exert strong influence on Colonel House. Wilson,
however, would immediately suspect that we were attempting to deal
with his successor, and to give Mr. Hughes the honor of instigating
peace proceedings.

"As far as I can judge from here, there seem to be three possibilities:

"1. That the Wilson peace movement should fail in consequence of
the obduracy of our enemies. In that case, if we were to reopen
the submarine campaign to bring England to her knees, the situation
would at least be more favorable to us than before.

"2. That the peace movement should fail through us, and that we
should resume the submarine war.

"3. That the peace movement should be accepted by both sides.

"In the first case, I consider war with the United States probable;
in the second, certain. This is the reason for my request for more
definite instructions as to whether I am to impede a peace movement, or
only a positive proposal that would bind us in respect of territorial
conditions."

To this report I received the following reply, containing quite
clear instructions, emphatically to encourage Mr. Wilson in whatever
course he might take:

TELEGRAM IN CIPHER

"Berlin, 18th August, 1916.

"In reply to report A. 350 of the 13th inst.

"Mediation by the President intended lead to the opening of peace
negotiations between the combatants we are gladly ready to accept.
Please encourage emphatically the President's efforts in this direction.
Naturally it must not be imagined that in accepting such mediation
we bind ourselves to any concrete peace condit