led. Meanwhile, he is sure to make
an attempt to negotiate peace, if only for election purposes. I
therefore venture to request Your Excellency to cable me further
brief instructions as to how I am to interpret the words 'more concrete
form of mediation plans,' and 'positive proposal of mediation.' I
am assuming that the main part of my respectful reports will only
reach Your Excellency at the same time as this. Therefore, Mr.
Gerard, when Your Excellency spoke with him at the beginning of
May, on the question of mediation, would not have received detailed
instructions as to the President's intentions. In any case, he
was mistaken as to the attitude Your Excellency should adopt with
regard to an American peace-movement. On the strength of a telegram
received at that time from Mr. Gerard, Mr. Wilson believed that
the Imperial Government was ready to accept his mediation, and
I accordingly contradicted this assumption as instructed. As far
as I know, Mr. Wilson refuses definitely to take any part in the
discussion of territorial questions, but confines his interest to
'disarmament' and 'Freedom of the Seas.' His idea is that there
should be a conference at the Hague, in which the United States
and other neutral Powers would only take part in so far as these
two questions are concerned. 'Disarmament' may certainly be very
undesirable for us, but, on the other hand, the 'Freedom of the
Seas,' ought, without a doubt, to bring us on the side of the United
States. If it once comes to peace negotiations between the combatants,
I regard it as out of the question--even were they to fail--that
the United States would enter the war against us. American public
feeling in favor of peace is too strong for that. It required the
hysterical excitement roused by the _Lusitania_ question, and the
incidents connected with it, to produce a state of mind among Americans
which at times made war seem inevitable. In the absence of similar
incidents, such a state of public feeling could not be aroused. The
admiration with which the cruise of the submarine _Deutschland_
was regarded showed plainly which way the wind blows now.

"I made the above mentioned request because I consider it out of
the question to prevent Mr. Wilson from taking action with regard
to peace. I am in doubt, however, whether by a 'positive proposal
of mediation' your Excellency means such a proposal as that made
by Mr. Roosevelt after the Russo-Japanese War. On that occasio