mstances were then such that the President no longer possessed
the power to compel England to observe international law. England
would only give way before the menace of war. In view, however,
of the state of natural feeling in the United States, and the
development of trade relations between America and the Entente,
war with England was out of the question. On the other hand, Mr.
Wilson possessed the power to bring about peace, because on this
question he could rely on the support of the majority of the American
nation. When the time was ripe, the President would take the desired
steps, but a neutral act of this nature would be cried down by
the very active Entente party in the United States as pro-German,
and could only be carried through if the national feeling towards
Germany took a more friendly turn. It was, therefore, necessary
that there should be a period of lull, during which Germany should
possibly not be discussed at all. The approaching hot season and the
usual exodus of political personages from Washington to the country
would offer a favorable opportunity to let all negotiations rest,
especially as, after the settlement of the _Sussex_ question, no
new incidents were to be expected. Colonel House's remarks accurately
reflected the actual position in the United States at the time. I could
not but express my agreement, and felt no doubt that the American
mediation would begin in the late summer. After our giving way on
the submarine question in order to avoid a break with the United
States, I regarded it as certain that we would not directly bring
about the rupture which had just been averted with such difficulty
by reopening the unrestricted submarine campaign, for in view of
the American ultimatum of the 18th April, 1916, there was no
alternative.

I should like to take this opportunity of making clear that I always
regarded American mediation as the only possible way out of the
war. I had no faith in the submarine campaign as likely to save
the situation, because the entry of the United States into the war
would more than outweigh all the advantages that the submarines could
bring us. On the other hand I was convinced that If the American
Government established a peace conference, this would be sure to
lead to peace itself. It could not be imagined that, in view of the
nations' need of peace, such a conference could break up without
having reached any result. Moreover, after the meeting of a conference,