for any length of time, as all
the military authorities have always been unanimous in regarding
and urging unrestricted submarine warfare as the only effective
means to bring about the defeat of England. Moreover, as we have
received secret information that the Entente have decided on a
drastic tightening of the blockade, and at the same time have agreed
in future to meet the protests of the neutrals, and particularly
America, with the argument that only in this way can the end of the
war, which is also in the interests of the neutral countries, be
brought about. Your Excellency will therefore bring to the notice
of President Wilson and Mr. House the serious dangers which his
passivity towards England involves.

"With regard to Mr. Wilson's plans for mediation, they are meanwhile
meeting with vigorous opposition in England. If they are rejected
by England, the result cannot but be favorable to us, for we are
naturally sceptical of mediation on the part of a statesman so
partial to England, and at the same time so naive as President
Wilson. This necessarily follows on the consideration that the
President would primarily be concerned to construct peace on the
basis of the _status quo ante_, and particularly in respect of
Belgium. Although there is to-day little on which to form an estimate
as to how far we shall be in a position to bring about a solution
in conformity with our own interests to the Belgian question, which
is the direct result of the war, so much is certain, that if the
war continues in our favor, a peace on the basis of the absolute
status quo ante would not be acceptable to us. So, as the President
interprets his role as the chosen champion of all that, in his
opinion, is right and just, it is to be feared that a refusal on
our part to make peace on this basis might induce him to go over
openly to the enemy's camp. It is not, however, out of the question
that public opinion in England may in time again turn to Mr. Wilson
and his desire for mediation. As soon, therefore, as Mr. Wilson's
mediation plans threaten to assume a more concrete form and there
is evidence of an inclination on the part of England to fall in
with them, it will be Your Excellency's duty to prevent President
Wilson from approaching us with a positive proposal of mediation.
The choice of means for attaining this object without endangering
our relations with the United States I think I may leave to Your
Excellency's diplomatic skill, a