decide that of South America. It is from Europe
that the fear of war arises, and it is in our dealings with Europe, and
in the dealings of European nations with one another, that the hope of
peace and of progress in international development must centre.

[1] For a view of Latin America's fear of aggression by the United
States, see such books as "El Imperialismo Norte-Americano," by F.
Caraballo Sotolongo, Havana, 1914, and America Latina ante el peliogro,
by Salvador K. Merlos, San Jose (Costa Rica), 1914. Both of these
books are shrill and somewhat uncritical but they fairly represent a
large body of Latin-American thought. There is usually a division of
opinion as to whether the United States is to attain its ends by
military or by financial means. "It is not _manu militari_," writes a
French author, "that Brother Jonathan intends to carve out his place in
the sun, but by the force of dollars."--"L'imperialisme allemand," by
Maurice Lair, Paris, 1914.

[2] F. Bulnes, "L'Avenir des nations Hispano-Americaines," quoted by F.
Garcia Calderon, "Latin America," p. 312.

[3] F. Garcia Calderon, "Latin America. Its Rise and Progress," p. 299.

[4] The problem of Canada's relation to European controversies and wars
may in the future present difficult problems for the United States. If
in the present war Germany had been able to land armies on Canadian
soil, or if in the future Russia or Japan were to do so, the position
of the United States might be rendered dangerous by the permanent
establishment of a strong military power, let us say in British
Columbia. Yet we could not demand that Canada be allowed to send
troops against Russia or Japan and those nations be forbidden to attack
in return. The problem of the immobilisation, and even of the
neutrality, of Canada in certain future wars, in which Great Britain is
engaged but we ourselves are neutrals, may become an urgent question.

[5] A guess at our possible losses through a non-aggressive policy in
China is made by Mr. Thomas F. Millard in his "Our Eastern Question."
"It is roughly estimated," he says, "that China's administrative,
commercial, and economic development in the next twenty years will need
$2,000,000,000 of foreign capital. Under a genuine application of the
Hay Doctrine, America would have approximately one-fourth of this
financing.... The returns from this investment would be partly
interest and partly trade. Five per cent. interest on