a complete defeat of Germany, such as later occurred, for otherwise
they could easily have found an excuse for coming into the war. At
that time Mr. Wilson was convinced that the war would end in a
peace without victory, for which he intended to use his influence.
The whole question was merely whether we realized these facts and
would avail ourselves of them or not. Our one asset in America
was the disinclination of the majority of the people for war, for
otherwise--as appeared later--it would have been only too easy
for the United States to make war upon us with success.

The President wanted to continue the policy he had adopted hitherto,
by standing firm to the point of view that the submarine war must
be conducted according to the principles of international law, and,
further, was waiting to see whether the unrestricted submarine
campaign would give rise to any further incidents.

In a letter written to Senator Stone, on the 24th February, the
President defined his policy in the following terms:

"You are right in assuming that I shall do everything in my power to
keep the United States out of the war. I think the country will feel
no anxiety about my line of action in this respect. I have devoted
many anxious months to this task under much greater difficulties
than appeared on the surface, and so far with success. The course
which the Central Powers intend to adopt in future with regard
to submarine warfare, as shown by their Memorandum, seems at the
moment to raise insuperable difficulties; but its contents are at
first sight so difficult to reconcile with the specific assurances
which the Central Powers have recently given us as to the treatment
of merchant shipping on the high seas, that I think that explanations
will shortly be forthcoming which will throw a different light on
the matter. We have in the past had no reason to doubt their good
faith, or the sincerity of their promises, and I, for my part, am
confident that we shall have none in the future.

"But in any event our duty is clear. No nation, no group of nations,
has the right, while war is in progress, to alter or disregard
the principles which all nations have agreed upon in mitigation
of the horrors and sufferings of war; and if the clear rights of
American citizens should ever unhappily be abridged or denied by
any such action, we should, it seems to me, have in honor no choice
as to what our own course should be.

"For my own part, I can