English fishing-fleet off the Dogger Bank in the North Sea was within
an ace of causing war. It was not till the 28th that Mr Balfour, speaking
at Southampton, was able to announce that the Russian government had
expressed regret, and that an international commission would inquire into
the facts with a view to the responsible persons being punished. Apart from
the importance of seeing the Russo-Japanese War through, there were
important negotiations on foot for a renewal or revision of the treaty with
Japan; and it was felt that on these grounds it would be a mistake for the
government to allow itself to be driven into a premature dissolution,
unless it found itself unable to maintain a majority in parliament. At the
same time the government's tenure of office was obviously drawing to its
close; the usual interpretation of the Septennial Act involved a
dissolution either in 1905 or 1906, and the government whips found
increased difficulty in keeping a majority at Westminster, since neither
the pronounced Chamberlainites nor the convinced free-trade Unionists
showed any zeal, and a large number of the uncertain Unionists did not
intend to stand again for parliament.

The events of the session of 1905 soon foreshadowed the end. The opposition
were determined to raise debates in the House of Commons on the fiscal
question, and Mr Balfour was no less determined not to be caught in their
trap. These tactics of avoidance reached their culminating point when on
one occasion Mr Balfour and his supporters left the House and allowed a
motion hostile to tariff reform to be passed _nem. con_. Though the
Scottish Churches Bill, the Unemployed Bill and the Aliens Bill were
passed, a complete fiasco occurred over the redistribution proposals, which
pleased nobody and had to be withdrawn owing to a blunder as to procedure;
and though on the 17th of July a meeting of the party at the foreign office
resulted in verbal assurances of loyalty, only two days later the
government was caught in a minority of four on the estimates for the Irish
Land Commission. For a few days it was uncertain whether they would resign
or dissolve, but it was decided to hold on.

The real causes, however, which kept the government in office, were
gradually losing their validity. The Russo-Japanese War came to an end; the
new offensive and defensive alliance with Japan was signed on the 12th of
August; the successful Anglo-French agreement, concluded in April 1904