's motion on the 18th of May. On the
3rd of October Mr Balfour spoke at Edinburgh on the fiscal question. The
more aggressive protectionists among Mr Chamberlain's supporters had lately
become very confident, and Mr Balfour plainly repudiated "protection" in so
far as it meant a policy aiming at supporting or creating home industries
by raising home prices; but he introduced a new point by declaring that an
Imperial Conference would be called to discuss with the colonies the
question of preferential tariffs if the Unionist government obtained a
majority at the next general election. The Edinburgh speech was again
received with conflicting interpretations, and much discussion prevailed as
to the conditions of the proposed conference, and as to whether it was or
was not an advance, as the Chamberlainites claimed, towards Mr Chamberlain.
Meanwhile the party was getting more and more disorganized, and the public
were getting tired of the apparent mystification. The opposition used the
situation to make capital in the country, and loudly called for a
dissolution.

It was plain indeed that the fiscal question itself was ripe for the polls;
Board of Trade statistics had been issued in profusion, and the whole case
was before the country. But, though Mr Chamberlain declared his desire for
an early appeal to the electors, he maintained his parliamentary loyalty to
Mr Balfour. There were, moreover, public reasons why a change of government
was undesirable. From 1903 onwards the question of army reform had been
under discussion, and the government was anxious to get this settled,
though in fact Mr Brodrick's and Mr Arnold-Forster's schemes for
reorganization failed to obtain any general support. And while foreign
affairs were being admirably conducted by Lord Lansdowne, they were
critical enough to make it dangerous to contemplate a "swopping of horses."
The Russo-Japanese War might at any moment lead to complications. The
exercise by Russian warships of the right of search over British ships was
causing great irritation in English commercial circles during 1904; after
several incidents had occurred, the stopping of the P. & O. steamer
"Malacca" on July 13th in the Red Sea by the Russian volunteer cruiser
"Peterburg" led to a storm of indignation, and the sinking of the "Knight
Commander" (July 24th) by the Vladivostok squadron intensified the feeling.
On the 23rd of October the outrageous firing by the Russian Baltic fleet on
the