t was concerned the arrangement was perfect. Yet it
contained within it the fatal ingredient. The army was to strike in the
Thames at Tilbury; but complete as was the secrecy, Marshal Saxe, who was
to command, could not face the passage without escort. There were too many
privateers and armed merchantmen always in the river, besides cruisers
moving to and fro on commerce-protection duty. The division, therefore,
which we supposed to be for the West Indies was to be detached from the
Brest fleet after it entered the Channel and was to proceed to join the
transports off Dunkirk, while the Marquis de Roquefeuil with the main fleet
held what British ships might be ready in Portsmouth either by battle or
blockade.

Nothing could look simpler or more certain of success. The British
Government seemed quite asleep. The blow was timed for the first week in
January, and it was mid-December before they even began to watch Brest with
cruisers regularly. On these cruisers' reports measures were taken to
prepare an equal squadron for sea by the new year. By this time nearly
twenty of the line were ready or nearly so at the Nore, Portsmouth, and
Plymouth, and a press was ordered to man them. Owing to various causes the
French had now to postpone their venture. Finally it was not till February
6th that Roquefeuil was seen to leave Brest with nineteen of the line. The
news reached London on the 12th, and next day Norris was ordered to hoist
his flag at Spithead. His instructions were "to take the most effectual
measures to prevent the making of any descent upon the kingdoms." It was
nothing but news that the young Pretender had left Rome for France that led
to this precaution. The Government had still no suspicion of what was
brewing at Dunkirk. It was not till the 20th that a Dover smuggler brought
over information which at last opened their eyes.

A day or two later the French transports were seen making for Dunkirk, and
were mistaken for the Brest fleet. Orders were consequently sent down to
Norris to follow them. In vain he protested at the interference. He knew
the French were still to the westward of him, but his orders were repeated,
and he had to go. Tiding it up-Channel against easterly winds, he reached
the Downs and joined the Nore Division there on the 28th. History usually
speaks of this false movement as the happy chance which saved the country
from invasion. But it was not so. Saxe had determined not to face the
Thames sh