views on
recognition:

"He was himself more than ever convinced that the restoration
of the old Union was impossible. He believed that, if the
Powers of Europe exercised no influence, the War would last
for years. He conceived that the Independence of the South
must be recognized sooner or later; and in his opinion the
Governments of Europe should be on the watch for a favourable
opportunity of doing this in such a manner as to end the War.
The present opportunity would however, he thought, be
particularly unfavourable."

Lyons writes:

"I did not express any opinion as to the policy to be
eventually pursued by France or England, but I told Monsieur
Mercier that I entirely agreed with him in thinking that
there was nothing to do at the present moment but to watch
events."

On the day following this interview, Lyons spoke to Seward of Mercier's
trip and was given a very different view of the situation at Richmond.
Seward said:

"He himself was quite convinced, from Monsieur Mercier's
account of what had passed, that the Confederates were about
to make a last effort, that their last resources were brought
into play; that their last Armies were in the field. If they
were now defeated, they would accept the terms which would be
offered them. Their talking of retiring into the interior was
idle. If the United States were undisputed masters of the
Border States and the Sea Coast, there would be no occasion
for any more fighting. Those who chose to retire into the
interior were welcome to do so, and to stay there till they
were tired."

"The truth," wrote Lyons, "as to the state of feeling in the South
probably lies somewhere between Mr. Seward's views and those of Monsieur
Mercier." Lyons concluded his report of the whole matter:

"The result of Monsieur Mercier's journey has been to bring
him back precisely to the point at which he was three months
ago. The Federal successes which occurred afterwards had
somewhat shaken his conviction in the ultimate success of the
South, and consequently his opinions as to the policy to be
adopted by France. The sentiments he now expresses are
exactly those which he expressed at the beginning of the
year[602]."

In other words, Mercier was now again pressing for early recognition of
the South at the first favourab