Of somewhat like opinion up to the end of March, 1862, Lyons, in April,
began to doubt his previous analysis of Northern temper and to write
warnings that the end was not near. Grant's hard-won victory in the West
at Shiloh, April 6-7, the first great pitched battle of the war, called
out such a flood of Northern expressions of determination to drive the
war to the bitter end as to startle Lyons and cause him, in a remarkably
clear letter of survey, to recast his opinions. He wrote:

"The general opinion is that the Campaign of this Spring will
clear up most of the doubts as to the result of the War. If
the Military successes of the North continue, the
determination of the South, will (it is asserted) be at last
really put to the test. If notwithstanding great Military
reverses, the loss of the Border States, and the occupation
of the most important points on the Coast, the Southern men
hold out, if they destroy as they threaten to do, their
cotton, tobacco and all other property which cannot be
removed and then retire into the interior with their families
and slaves, the Northern Conquests may prove to be but
barren. The climate may be a fatal enemy to the Federal
Armies. The Northern people may be unable or unwilling to
continue the enormous expenditure. They may prefer Separation
to protracting the War indefinitely. I confess, however, that
I fear that a protraction of the War during another year or
longer, is a not less probable result of the present posture
of affairs, than either the immediate subjugation of the
South or the immediate recognition of its independence[590]."

This itemization of Southern methods of resistance was in line with
Confederate threats at a moment when the sky looked black. There was
indeed much Southern talk of "retiring" into a hypothetical defensible
interior which impressed Englishmen, but had no foundation in
geographical fact. Meanwhile British attention was eagerly fixed on the
Northern advance, and it was at least generally hoped that the
projected attack on New Orleans and McClellan's advance up the peninsula
toward Richmond would bring to a more definite status the conflict in
America. Extreme Southern sympathizers scouted the possibility of any
conclusive Northern success, ignoring, because ignorant, the importance
of Grant's western campaign. They "were quite struck aback" by the