d broken out three or even two years ago. Of the
two Powers, the United States would now be the better prepared for the
struggle--the coasts of the United States would present few points open
to attack--while the means of assailing suddenly our own ports in the
neighbourhood of this country, and especially Bermuda and the Bahamas,
would be in immediate readiness. Three years ago Great Britain might at
the commencement of a war have thrown a larger number of trained troops
into the British Provinces on the continent than could have been
immediately sent by the United States to invade those provinces. It
seems no exaggeration to say that the United States could now without
difficulty send an Army exceeding in number, by five to one, any force
which Great Britain would be likely to place there."]

[Footnote 1120: _Ibid._, Private. Lyons to Russell, Nov. 3, 1863.]

[Footnote 1121: Lyons Papers. To Lyons.]

[Footnote 1122: Rhodes, IV, p. 393. Nov. 20, 1863.]

[Footnote 1123: _The Liberator_, Nov. 27, 1863. I have not dwelt upon
Beecher's tour of England and Scotland in 1863, because its influence in
"winning England" seems to me absurdly over-estimated. He was a gifted
public orator and knew how to "handle" his audiences, but the majority
in each audience was friendly to him, and there was no such "crisis of
opinion" in 1863 as has frequently been stated in order to exalt
Beecher's services.]

[Footnote 1124: Dodd, _Jefferson Davis_, p. 319. The words are Dodd's.]

[Footnote 1125: State Department, Eng., Vol. 84, No. 557. Adams to
Seward, Dec. 17, 1863.]

[Footnote 1126: Hotze Correspondence. McHenry to Hotze, Dec. 1, 1863.]

[Footnote 1127: McHenry, _The Cotton Trade_, London, 1863. The preface
in the form of a long letter to W.H. Gregory is dated August 31, 1863.
For a comprehensive note on McHenry see C.F. Adams in Mass. Hist. Soc.
_Proceedings_, March, 1914, Vol. XLVII, 279 _seq_.]

[Footnote 1128: Mason Papers.]

CHAPTER XV

THE SOUTHERN INDEPENDENCE ASSOCIATION

Northern friends in England were early active in organizing public
meetings and after the second emancipation proclamation of January 1,
1863, these became both numerous and notable. Southern friends,
confident in the ultimate success of the Confederacy and equally
confident that they had with them the great bulk of upper-class opinion
in England, at first thought it unnecessary to be active in public
expressions aside from such as were made t