enemy courses of action is to make a deduction of the
enemy's mission. Sometimes, undoubtedly, this is the case. However, it
is not always possible to deduce the enemy's mission correctly. If the
deduction is incorrect the remainder of the estimate will be on an
unsound basis. If, as may happen, the enemy's plan has been captured,
or if, by some other method, conclusive information has been
obtained, it may be possible to state the enemy's mission. Even then,
however, the enemy's mission may sometimes be changed. It is thus
evident that the commander, by restricting his thought, may frequently
fail to consider all of the enemy capabilities which may materially
influence his own course of action.

With this precaution in mind, the commander, at this point in his
Estimate, proceeds to analyze the effect desired by the enemy. The
commander intends to use his deductions, if such use appears to be
sound, to narrow the field of consideration as to enemy courses of
action. However, he reminds himself that such restriction will be
dangerous unless it is established on sound grounds.

The first mental act toward determining the effect desired by the
enemy is to form a reasoned opinion as to the situation which the
enemy wishes to maintain or to create. The maintenance or creation of
this situation, existent or to be brought about, is an enemy
objective.

From earlier association with the enemy, from intelligence of his
peacetime preparations, and from a knowledge of his political and
military history, his broad current policies are generally matters of
common report. The motives impelling the enemy to action may thus be
evident. Past or present tendencies of the enemy, along certain
specific lines of endeavor, may be known. These may be corroborated by
the enemy action which has recently occurred.

In military undertakings of major scope the objectives of the enemy
are often difficult of concealment. A survey of the objectives which
the enemy has been pursuing may allow a reasoned opinion to be formed
as to the enemy's immediate objectives,--whether, at least, his future
action will be offensive or defensive. The importance to be attached
by the enemy to certain physical objectives may be indicated by the
broad aims known to exist. Present composition and disposition of the
enemy's forces may betray the effort which he intends. Circumstances,
clearly disadvantageous to the commander's forces, may disclose what
his enemy's a