m inmate surveys
conducted in 1974, 1979, 1986, 1991, and 1997. (See Lifetime Likelihood
of Going to State or Federal Prison, NCJ 160092, March 1997, for a
description of previous estimates.)

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+6.6% of persons born in 2001 will go to prison, if current rates of
first incarceration remain unchanged+

If rates of first incarceration and mortality in 2001 remain unchanged,
nearly 1 in 15 persons born in 2001 (6.6%) will go to State or Federal
prison during their lifetime (figure 3).

[Illustration: Figure 3: Lifetime chances of going to prison]

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Figure 3

+The lifetime chances of going to prison reached 6.6% in 2001,
up from 1.9% in 1974+

Cumulative percent of U.S. residents
going to prison

Age 1974 1986 1991 2001

13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
17 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
18 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4
19 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8
20 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1
21 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5
22 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.8
23 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.1
24 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.4
25 1.1 1.5 2.4 2.6
26 1.1 1.7 2.6 2.9
27 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.1
28 1.3 1.9 3.0 3.4
29 1.4 2.0 3.2 3.6
30 1.4 2.1 3.3 3.9
31 1.5 2.2 3.5 4.1
32 1.5 2.3 3.6 4.3
33 1.5 2.4 3.7 4.5
34 1.6 2.5 3.9 4.7
35 1.6 2.5 4.0 4.9
36 1.6 2.6 4.1 5.1
37 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.2
38 1.7 2.7 4.3 5.4
39 1.7 2.8 4.4 5.5
40 1.7 2.8 4.5 5.6
41 1.7 2.9 4.5 5.7
42 1.8 2.9 4.6 5.8
43 1.8 2.9 4.6 5.9
44 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.0
45 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.1
46 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.1
47 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.2
48 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.2
49 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.2
50