or 1 in 9) chance in his life-time of going to
prison, while a female has a 1.8% (or 1 in 56) chance. An estimated
9.6% of men and 1.5% of women are expected to go to prison by age 40,
as first incarceration rates riserapidly, then decline with advancing
age (figures 4 and 5).

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+Table 9. Lifetime chances of going to State or Federal prison for
the first time, by gender, race, and Hispanic orign, 1974-2001+

Percent of resident population expected to go to
State or Federal prison for the first time, by
year--

1974 1979 1986 1991 1997 2001

Gender
Male 3.6% 4.1% 6.0% 9.1% 10.6% 11.3%
Female 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.8

Race/Hispanic origin
White* 1.2% 1.4% 2.0% 2.5% 3.1 3.4%
Male 2.2 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.4 5.9
Female 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9

Black* 7.0% 7.2% 9.3% 16.5% 17.7 18.6%
Male 13.4 13.4 17.4 29.4 31.0 32.2
Female 1.1 1.4 1.8 3.6 4.9 5.6

Hispanic 2.2% 3.3% 6.2% 9.5% 10.5 10.0%
Male 4.0 6.0 11.1 16.3 18.0 17.2
Female 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.2

Note: Percents represent the chances of being admitted to State or
Federal prison during a lifetime.

Estimates were obtained by applying age-specific first incarceration
and mortality rates for each group to a hypothetical population of
100,000 births. See _Methodology_.

*Excludes persons of Hispanic origin.

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[Illustration: Figure 4: Nearly 1 in 3 black males likely to go to prison]

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Figure 4

+Nearly 1 in 3 black males likely to go to prison
based on constant 2001 incarceration rates+

Cumulative percent of males going to prison

Age Total White Black Hispanic

13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1
1