rates prior to this date. First
incarceration rates in 1970 and earlier were estimated to be 80% of
each age-specific rate of first incarceration in 1974.

If first incarceration rates in 1970 and earlier had averaged 90% of
each age-specific first incarceration rate in 1974, the estimated
number of adults alive in 2001 who had ever gone to prison would have
been 1.9% higher (5,723,000). Alternatively, if earlier first
incarceration rates had averaged 70% of 1974 rates, the estimated
number of persons ever to have been incarcerated in 2001 would have
been-1.9% lower (5,513,000).

4. Mortality rate schedules for prisoners were not available. Compared
with the general population, mortality rates for prisoners were
estimated to be 20% higher for adults under age 65, and the same for
those age 65 and older. The estimate was based on the lower overall
educational attainment of prisoners, and longitudinal studies
documenting the relationship between mortality and educational
attainment.

If mortality rates for adults ever incarcerated, under age 65 were
instead 40% higher than that of the general population, the estimated
prevalence of ever having gone to prison in 2001 would be 5,567,000
(-0.9% less). If mortality rates for prisoners had been equal to that
of the general population, the estimated prevalence would have been
0.9% higher in 2001 (5,670,000).

5. Comparable mortality rates prior to 1976 were not available.
However, there is minimal effect of declining mortality rates since
1900 on the estimated number of persons ever incarcerated. Prevalence
rates are only affected to the extent that there may have been a
different decline in mortality among those ever incarcerated (the
numerator) compared with all surviving members of a birth cohort (the
denominator). Furthermore, prevalence rates were applied to estimates
of the U.S. resident population (which fully reflect declines in
mortality).

6. Age-specific incarceration rates do not incorporate a forecast of
future rates of imprisonment, which may be affected by changes in
criminal behavior, law enforcement, and in sentencing policies.
Consequently, the lifetime likelihood of incarceration, 2001, and
projected prevalence rates for 2002 and beyond may be different.

A fuller description of the methodological techniques used in preparing
this report is available upon request from the author.

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