ge-specific rates
of first incarceration remain at 2001 levels, the number of adults
having ever served time in prison is projected to rise to 7.7 million
by 2010. A total of 3.4% of the adult population (1 in 29 persons age
18 or older) is expected to have served time in prison.

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Projected prevalence of having gone to State or Federal prison*

Year Number Percent

2001 5,618,000 2.7%
2002 5,856,000 2.8
2003 6,095,000 2.8
2004 6,332,000 2.9
2005 6,568,000 3.0
2006 6,804,000 3.1
2007 7,040,000 3.1
2008 7,275,000 3.2
2009 7,511,000 3.3
2010 7,745,000 3.4

*Based on prevalence estimates for exact ages through 2001 and
projections for exact ages from 2002 through 2010. See
_Methodology_ for estimation procedures.

Projected adult
Year resident population

2001 210,207,901
2002 212,427,944
2003 214,688,268
2004 216,918,713
2005 219,144,044
2006 221,409,946
2007 223,754,193
2008 226,155,771
2009 228,520,785
2010 230,792,746

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+Lifetime likelihood estimates of going to prison differ from current
prevalence estimates+

The lifetime likelihood of going to prison is an estimate of the
percentage of all persons in a birth cohort expected to go to prison
over the course of a lifetime. In contrast, the prevalence of ever
having gone to prison is an estimate of the percentage who have ever
gone to prison among just the surviving members of all birth cohorts
over a specific period.

Estimates of the lifetime likelihood of going to prison project the
percentage of persons at birth expected to go to prison, if the entire
cohort were subject to a fixed set of rates of first admission to
prison and mortality over an entire lifetime. In calculating these
estimates, incarceration and mortality rates are fixed at the time of
"birth" of the cohort.

Standard life table techniques were used to prepare estimates of the
lifetime likelihood of going to prison based on rates of first
incarceration during a 12-month period derived fro