g is taking place. The United Nations
estimates that 1.6 million are displaced within Iraq, and up to 1.8
million Iraqis have fled the country.

Shiite militias engaging in sectarian violence pose a substantial
threat to immediate and long-term stability. These militias are
diverse. Some are affiliated with the government, some are highly
localized, and some are wholly outside the law. They are fragmenting,
with an increasing breakdown in command structure. The militias target
Sunni Arab civilians, and some struggle for power in clashes with one
another. Some even target government ministries. They undermine the
authority of the Iraqi government and security forces, as well as the
ability of Sunnis to join a peaceful political process. The prevalence
of militias sends a powerful message: political leaders can preserve
and expand their power only if backed by armed force.

The Mahdi Army, led by Moqtada al-Sadr, may number as many as 60,000
fighters. It has directly challenged U.S. and Iraqi government forces,
and it is widely believed to engage in regular violence against Sunni
Arab civilians. Mahdi fighters patrol certain Shia enclaves, notably
northeast Baghdad's teeming neighborhood of 2.5 million known as "Sadr
City." As the Mahdi Army has grown in size and influence, some
elements have moved beyond Sadr's control.

The Badr Brigade is affiliated with the Supreme Council for the
Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), which is led by Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim. The Badr Brigade has long-standing ties with the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps. Many Badr members have become integrated
into the Iraqi police, and others play policing roles in southern
Iraqi cities. While wearing the uniform of the security services, Badr
fighters have targeted Sunni Arab civilians. Badr fighters have also
clashed with the Mahdi Army, particularly in southern Iraq.

Criminality also makes daily life unbearable for many Iraqis.
Robberies, kidnappings, and murder are commonplace in much of the
country. Organized criminal rackets thrive, particularly in unstable
areas like Anbar province. Some criminal gangs cooperate with,
finance, or purport to be part of the Sunni insurgency or a Shiite
militia in order to gain legitimacy. As one knowledgeable American
official put it, "If there were foreign forces in New Jersey, Tony
Soprano would be an insurgent leader."

Four of Iraq's eighteen provinces are highly insecure--Baghdad, Anbar,
Diyala, and Sa