e "Sunni
region." Particularly contentious is a provision in the constitution
that shares revenues nationally from current oil reserves, while
allowing revenues from reserves discovered in the future to go to the
regions.

The Sunnis did not actively participate in the constitution-drafting
process, and acceded to entering the government only on the condition
that the constitution be amended. In September, the parliament agreed
to initiate a constitutional review commission slated to complete its
work within one year; it delayed considering the question of forming a
federalized region in southern Iraq for eighteen months.

Another key unresolved issue is the future of Kirkuk, an oil-rich city
in northern Iraq that is home to substantial numbers of Kurds, Arabs,
and Turkmen. The Kurds insisted that the constitution require a
popular referendum by December 2007 to determine whether Kirkuk can
formally join the Kurdish administered region, an outcome that Arabs
and Turkmen in Kirkuk staunchly oppose. The risks of further violence
sparked by a Kirkuk referendum are great.

Iraq's leaders often claim that they do not want a division of the
country, but we found that key Shia and Kurdish leaders have little
commitment to national reconciliation. One prominent Shia leader told
us pointedly that the current government has the support of 80 percent
of the population, notably excluding Sunni Arabs. Kurds have fought
for independence for decades, and when our Study Group visited Iraq,
the leader of the Kurdish region ordered the lowering of Iraqi flags
and the raising of Kurdish flags. One senior American general
commented that the Iraqis "still do not know what kind of country they
want to have." Yet many of Iraq's most powerful and well-positioned
leaders are not working toward a united Iraq.

SECURITY. The security situation cannot improve unless leaders act in
support of national reconciliation. Shiite leaders must make the
decision to demobilize militias. Sunni Arabs must make the decision to
seek their aims through a peaceful political process, not through
violent revolt. The Iraqi government and Sunni Arab tribes must
aggressively pursue al Qaeda.

Militias are currently seen as legitimate vehicles of political
action. Shia political leaders make distinctions between the Sunni
insurgency (which seeks to overthrow the government) and Shia militias
(which are used to fight Sunnis, secure neighborhoods, and maximize
p