ve mixed populations, as do
Baghdad and most other major cities in Iraq. A rapid devolution could
result in mass population movements, collapse of the Iraqi security
forces, strengthening of militias, ethnic cleansing, destabilization
of neighboring states, or attempts by neighboring states to dominate
Iraqi regions. Iraqis, particularly Sunni Arabs, told us that such a
division would confirm wider fears across the Arab world that the
United States invaded Iraq to weaken a strong Arab state.

While such devolution is a possible consequence of continued
instability in Iraq, we do not believe the United States should
support this course as a policy goal or impose this outcome on the
Iraqi state. If events were to move irreversibly in this direction,
the United States should manage the situation to ameliorate
humanitarian consequences, contain the spread of violence, and
minimize regional instability. The United States should support as
much as possible central control by governmental authorities in
Baghdad, particularly on the question of oil revenues.

D. Achieving Our Goals

We agree with the goal of U.S. policy in Iraq, as stated by the
President: an Iraq that can "govern itself, sustain itself, and defend
itself." In our view, this definition entails an Iraq with a broadly
representative government that maintains its territorial integrity, is
at peace with its neighbors, denies terrorism a sanctuary, and doesn't
brutalize its own people. Given the current situation in Iraq,
achieving this goal will require much time and will depend primarily
on the actions of the Iraqi people.

In our judgment, there is a new way forward for the United States to
support this objective, and it will offer people of Iraq a reasonable
opportunity to lead a better life than they did under Saddam Hussein.
Our recommended course has shortcomings, as does each of the policy
alternatives we have reviewed. We firmly believe, however, that it
includes the best strategies and tactics available to us to positively
influence the outcome in Iraq and the region. We believe that it could
enable a responsible transition that will give the Iraqi people a
chance to pursue a better future, as well as serving America's
interests and values in the years ahead.

II

The Way Forward--A New Approach

Progress in Iraq is still possible if new approaches are taken
promptly by Iraq, the United States, and other countries that have a
stake in