not greatly
exceed the level of about 150,000 tons a month already attained.

During this period Allied countermeasures were chiefly of a defensive
character, including patrol of coastal areas, diversion of traffic
from customary routes, and arming of merchantmen. This last measure,
making surface approach and preliminary warning a highly dangerous
procedure for the submarine, led Germany to the announcement that,
after March 1, 1916, all armed merchant vessels would be torpedoed
without warning. But how were U-boat commanders to distinguish
between enemy and neutral vessels? Between vessels with or without
guns? The difficulty brings out clearly the fact that while the
submarines made good pirates, they were hampered in warfare on
legitimate lines.

Germany redoubled U-boat activities to lend strength to her peace
proposals at the close of 1916, and when these failed she decided
to disregard altogether the cobwebs of legalism that had hitherto
hindered her submarine war. On February 1, 1917, she declared
unrestricted warfare in an immense barred zone within limits extending
from the Dutch coast through the middle of the North Sea to the
Faroe Islands and thence west and south to Cape Finisterre, and
including also the entire Mediterranean east of Spain. An American
ship was to be allowed to enter and leave Falmauth once a week,
and there was a crooked lane leading to Greece.

[Illustration: GERMAN BARRED ZONES

British mined area and North Sea mine barrage.]

In thus announcing her intention to sink all ships on sight in
European waters, Germany burned her bridges behind her. She staked
everything on this move. Fully anticipating the hostility of the
United States, she hoped to win the war before that country could
complete its preparations and give effective support to the Allies.
General von Hindenburg's statement has already been quoted. It meant
that the army was to assume the defensive, while the navy carried
out its attack on Allied communications. Admiral von Capelle, head
of the German Admiralty, declared that America's aid would be
"absolutely negligible." "My personal view," he added, "is that
the U-boat will bring peace within six months."

As it turned out, Germany's disregard of neutral rights in 1917,
like the violation of Belgium in 1914, reacted upon her and proved
the salvation of the Western Powers. After the defection of Russia,
France was in imperative need of men. Great Britain needed ships