ld be at the mercy of any power that could defeat
her navy. And this policy coupled with the demand for "a place in
the sun," threatened the rich colonies that lay under the British
flag. It could not be taken otherwise.

[Footnote 1: MY MEMOIRS, Chap. xv and _passim._]

These implications began to bear fruit after their kind. In the
place of friendliness on the part of the English,--a friendliness
uninterrupted by war, and based on the blood of their royal family
and the comradeship in arms against France in the days of Louis
XIV, Frederick the Great, and Napoleon--there developed a growing
hostility. In vain missions were sent by the British Government
to promote a better understanding, for the Germans declined to
accept either a "naval holiday" or a position of perpetual naval
inferiority. In consequence, England abandoned her policy of isolation,
and came to an understanding with her ancient enemies, Russia and
France. Thus Germany arrayed against herself all the resources of
the British Empire and in this act signed her own death warrant.

A final word as to the future of sea power. The influence of modern
inventions is bound to affect the significance of the sea in the
future. Oceans have practically dwindled away as national barriers.
Wireless and the speed of the modern steamship have reduced the
oceans to ponds. "Splendid isolation" is now impossible. Modern
artillery placed at Calais, for instance, could shell London and
cover the transportation of troops in the teeth of a fleet. Aircraft
cross land and sea with equal ease. The submersible has come to
stay. Indeed, it looks as if the navy of the future will tend first
to the submersible types and later abandon the sea for the air,
and the "illimitable pathways of the sea" will yield to still more
illimitable pathways of the sky. The consequence is bound to be a
closer knitting of the peoples of the world through the conquering
of distance by time.

This bringing together breeds war quite as easily as peace, and
the progress of invention makes wars more frightful. The closely
knit economic structure of Europe did not prevent the greatest
war in history and there is little hope for the idea that wars
can never occur again. The older causes of war lay in pressure
of population, the temptation of better lands, racial hatreds or
ambitions, religious fanaticism, dynastic aims, and imperialism.
Some of these remain. The chief modern source of trouble is trade
r