will give ten or eleven against
sixteen or seventeen, declaring the renewal inexpedient. In this case,
notwithstanding the nomination has been confirmed, it is supposed the
President would perhaps not act under it, on the probability that more
than the third would be against the ratification. I believe, however,
that he would act, and that a third could not be got to oppose the
ratification. It is acknowledged we have nothing to do but to decide the
question about arming. Yet not a word is said about adjourning; and some
even talk of continuing the session permanently; others talk of July and
August. An effort, however, will soon be made for an early adjournment.
My friendly salutations to Mrs. Madison; to yourself an affectionate
adieu.

Th: Jefferson.

LETTER CCXXVII.--TO JAMES MADISON, March 21, 1798

TO JAMES MADISON.

Philadelphia, March 21, 1798.

Dear Sir,

I wrote you last on the 15th; since that, yours of the 12th has been
received. Since that, too, a great change has taken place in the
appearance of our political atmosphere. The merchants, as before,
continue, a respectable part of them, to wish to avoid arming. The
French decree operated on them as a sedative, producing more alarm than
resentment: on the Representatives, differently. It excited indignation
highly in the war party, though I do not know that it had added any
new friends, to that side of the question. We still hoped a majority
of about four: but the insane message which you will see in the public
papers has had great effect. Exultation on the one side, and a certainty
of victory; while the other is petrified with astonishment. Our Evans,
though his soul is wrapt up in the sentiments of this message, yet
afraid to give a vote openly for it, is going off to-morrow, as is said.
Those who count, say there are still two members of the other side who
will come over to that of peace. If so, the members will be for war
measures, fifty-two, against them fifty-three; if all are present except
Evans. The question is, what is to be attempted, supposing we have a
majority: I suggest two things: 1. As the President declares he has
withdrawn the executive prohibition to arm, that Congress should pass a
legislative one. If that should fail in the Senate, it would heap
coals of fire on their heads. 2. As, to do nothing and to gain time is
everything with us, I propose, that they shall come to a resolution of
adjournment, 'in order to go home and