f the 4th is now at hand.
The public papers will give you the news of Europe. The French decree
making the vessel friendly or enemy, according to the hands by which
the cargo was manufactured, has produced a great sensation among the
merchants here. Its operation is not yet perhaps well understood; but
probably it will put our shipping out of competition, because British
bottoms, which can come under convoy, will alone be trusted with return
cargoes. Ours, losing this benefit, would need a higher freight out, in
which, therefore, they will be underbid by the British. They must then
retire from the competition. Some no doubt will try other channels of
commerce, and return cargoes from other countries. This effect would be
salutary. A very well informed merchant, too, (a Scotchman, entirely in
the English trade) told me, bethought it would have another good effect,
by checking and withdrawing our extensive commerce and navigation (the
fruit of our natural position) within those bounds to which peace must
necessarily bring them. That this being done by degrees, will probably
prevent those numerous failures produced generally by a peace coming on
suddenly. Notwithstanding this decree, the sentiments of the merchants
become more and more cooled and settled down against arming. Yet it
is believed the Representatives do not cool; and though we think the
question against arming will be carried, yet probably by a majority
of only four or five. Their plan is to have convoys furnished for our
vessels going to Europe, and smaller vessels for the coasting defence.
On this condition, they will agree to fortify southern harbors and build
some galleys. It has been concluded among them, that if war takes place,
Wolcott is to be retained in office, that the President must give up
M'Henry, and as to Pickering they are divided, the eastern men being
determined to retain him, their middle and southern brethren wishing
to get rid of him. They have talked of General Pinckney as successor
to M'Henry. This information is certain. However, I hope we shall avoid
war, and save them the trouble of a change of ministry. The President
has nominated John Quincy Adams Commissioner Plenipotentiary to renew
the treaty with Sweden. Tazewell made a great stand against it, on the
general ground that we should let our treaties drop, and remain without
any. He could only get eight votes against twenty. A trial will be made
today in another form, which he thinks