uestioned Sir James Fergusson in the House of Commons on the
alleged understanding between England and Italy. All information,
however, was refused[263].

[Footnote 263: Hansard, vol. cccxii. pp. 1180 _et seq._; Chiala, _La
Triplice e la Duplice Alleanza_, app. ii.; Mr. Stillman, _Francesco
Crispi_ (p. 177), believes in the danger to Spezzia.]

Next to nothing, then, is known on the interesting question how far the
British Government went in framing an agreement with Italy, and through
her, with the Triple Alliance. We can only conjecture the motives which
induced the Salisbury Cabinet to make a strategic turn towards that
"conservative" alliance, and yet not definitely join it. The isolation
of England proved, in the sequel, to be not only a source of annoyance
to the Continental Powers but of weakness to herself, because her
statesmen failed to use to the full the potential advantages of their
position at the middle of the see-saw. Bismarck's dislike of England was
not incurable; he was never a thorough-going "colonial"; and it is
probable that the adhesion of England to his league would have
inaugurated a period of mutual good-will in politics, colonial policy,
and commerce. The abstention of England has in the sequel led German
statesmen to show all possible deference to Russia, generally at the
expense of British interests.

The importance of this consideration becomes obvious when the dangers of
the year 1887 are remembered. The excitement caused in Russia and France
by the Rustchuk and Schnaebele affairs, the tension in Germany produced
by the drastic proposals of a new Army Bill, and, above all, the
prospect of the triumph of Boulangist militarism in France, kept the
Continent in a state of tension for many months. In May, Katkoff nearly
succeeded in persuading the Czar to dismiss de Giers and adopt a warlike
policy, in the belief that a strong Cabinet was about to be formed at
Paris with Boulanger as the real motive power. After a long ministerial
crisis the proposed ministerial combination broke down; Boulanger was
shelved, and the Czar is believed to have sharply rebuked Katkoff for
his presumption[264]. This disappointment of his dearest hopes preyed on
the health of that brilliant publicist and hastened his end, which
occurred on August 1, 1887.

[Footnote 264: This version (the usual one) is contested by Cyon, who
says that Katkoff's influence over the Czar was undermined by a mean
German intrigue.]