re Ali would have been far less
costly than the non-committal policy which in 1873 alienated him.
Outwardly he posed as the aggrieved but still faithful friend. In
reality he was looking northwards for the personal guarantee which never
came from Calcutta.

It should, however, be stated that up to the time of the fall of the
Gladstone Ministry (February 1874), Russia seemed to have no desire to
meddle in Afghan affairs. The Russian Note of January 21, 1874, stated
that the Imperial Government "continued to consider Afghanistan as
entirely beyond its sphere of action[294]." Nevertheless, that
declaration inspired little confidence. The Russophobes, headed by Sir
Henry Rawlinson and Sir Bartle Frere, could reply that they distrusted
Russian disclaimers concerning Afghanistan, when the plea of necessity
had so frequently and so speedily relegated to oblivion the earlier
"assurances of intention."

[Footnote 294: Argyll, _Eastern Question_, vol. ii. p. 347. See,
however, the letters that passed between General Kaufmann, Governor of
Turkestan, and Cabul in 1870-74, in Parl. Papers, Central Asia, No. 1
(1881), pp. 2-10.]

Such was the state of affairs when, in February 1874, Disraeli came to
power at Westminster with Lord Salisbury as Secretary of State for
India. The new Ministry soon showed the desire to adopt a more spirited
foreign policy than their predecessors, who had fretted public opinion
by their numerous acts of complaisance or surrender. Russia soon gave
cause for complaint. In June 1874 the Governor of the trans-Caspian
province issued a circular, warning the nomad Turkomans of the Persian
border-lands against raiding; it applied to tribes inhabiting districts
within what were considered to be the northern boundaries of Persia.
This seemed to contravene the assurances previously given by Russia that
she would not extend her possessions in the southern part of Central
Asia[295]. It also foreshadowed another stride forward at the expense of
the Turkoman districts both of Persia and Afghanistan.

[Footnote 295: Parl. Papers, Afghanistan, No. 1 (1878), p. 107.]

As no sufficient disclaimer appeared, the London partisans of the
Indian "forward policy" sought to induce Lord Derby and Lord Salisbury
to take precautionary measures. Their advice was summed up in the Note
of January 11, 1875, written by that charming man and able
administrator, Sir Bartle Frere. Its chief practical recommendation was,
firstly, the de