had shaken off
the Chinese rule, from Ili, so might the Russians at their good pleasure
play the same part against the Chinese. In short, the Russians remaining
in Ili would neutralize all the advantages that China had secured by her
recent military success. But, although there is a foundation of well
grounded apprehension at the strategical advantages of Russia, at the
root of China's demand for the surrender of Kuldja, that is not the only
cause, or even the principal one, for the Chinese making it. Of all
their Central Asian possessions, Ili was the most cherished, and it was
to recover that region more especially that Tso Tsung Tang undertook
those arduous campaigns which have so far ended in triumph, and which
were designed for, among other purposes, the purpose of giving that
Viceroy a prestige and influence that would enable him to play the
rival to Li Hung Chang. Ili was their metropolis in Central Asia, and
its fall marked the wide difference that there was between the
Tungan-Khoja rising of 1862-63 and all its predecessors. The fall of Ili
meant the fall of Chinese power, and Chinese power cannot be held to be
completely restored so long as Ili remains in alien hands. On this point
the Chinese are very keen.

Russia, on the other hand, hesitates to hand over Ili for various
reasons. In the first place, it is not certain that China has
_permanently_ reconquered Eastern Turkestan, nor is it clear that the
Imperial exchequer will be able to bear a continual strain upon it for
Central Asian expenditure. Moreover there is the unknown quantity of the
rivalry of Li Hung Chang and Tso Tsung Tang, and whatever influence the
latter may have with the army and the ruling caste on account of his
Mantchoo blood, the former holds the purse in his hands, and can at any
moment paralyse Chinese activity and strength in Central Asia. The
Russians also, whatever rash promises they may have given at Pekin--and
they certainly did promise to retrocede Kuldja to China, whenever the
Chinese should be strong enough to return to Central Asia--formally
(_teste_ General Kolpakovsky's proclamation) annexed Kuldja "in
perpetuity." In the eyes of the people of Central Asia, that
proclamation defines Russia's tenure of Kuldja, and not the vague
promise that was uttered in the ears of the authorities at Pekin. Now
Russia knows this as well as we do; and she is aware that no strict
adherence to her word of honour will induce the people of West