ust
of the latest instructions to our submarine commanders, he was
much gratified, but explained at once that the fact of its being
confidential would deprive the information of all its value; something
must, at all costs, be done to reassure public opinion. I could
not but admit that the view of the Secretary of State was correct
in this respect. The factor of public opinion obviously appeared
of less importance in Berlin than in Washington; besides, I knew
from experience that no secret could be kept in Washington for
long, and that in a few days this, our first sign of yielding,
would be common knowledge. I thought it best, therefore, to get
the full diplomatic advantage from the new situation, and took it
upon myself, on September 1st, to publish my instructions. This
exercise of initiative got me a reprimand from Berlin, but I attained
my object none the less, in that I avoided any immediate danger
of war.

Concerning these negotiations the following correspondence took
place with Berlin:

(1) CIPHER

"Cedarhurst, August 30th, 1915.

"I have tried to wire reports to your Excellency by the route placed
at our disposal, and inform you as to the progress of the negotiations
between myself and Mr. Lansing over the _Arabic_ incident. In
consequence of the instructions given to me and the information given
by your Excellency to the Associated Press in Berlin, the general
situation here has taken a turn for the better. The prospect of war
is becoming more remote; there are signs of returning confidence
on the Stock Exchange, and I have even succeeded in inducing the
Press to see things in a more reasonable light.

"Thus up to the present, everything seems to be going well, and a
rupture of diplomatic relations appears once more to be indefinitely
postponed. None the less, our difficulties are really much greater than
at the time of the _Lusitania_ incident. The American Government's
intentions are undoubtedly peaceful, and the case of the _Arabic_,
involving as it did the loss of only two American lives, may be
said to be in itself comparatively unimportant. There are other
factors, however, to be considered. Both the Government and the
people are beginning to have shrewd suspicions, which for reasons
of policy they refrain from expressing at present, that we cheated
the United States in the matter of the _Lusitania_, that we spun out
the discussion as long as possible, and then replied to President
Wilson'