f swift passenger ships, which we have, none the less,
undertaken not to attack without notice. The suggested proposal,
therefore, could not harm us; it would, on the other hand, make us
very popular here and give the United States a very strong position
in her negotiations with England. Of course, I may be able to effect
an agreement without this. The main point in dispute is the verdict
on the action of the commander in the _Arabic_ case, because this
involves the whole question of our good faith. Anyway, there is
no doubt whatever that a second _Arabic_ case is bound to result
in war."

(2) CIPHER TELEGRAM

"Cedarhurst, September 22nd, 1915.

"As position is still very difficult, I am carrying on conversations
in strict confidence through personal friend of Wilson's. Request,
therefore, that no directions be sent as regards question of
responsibility for _Arabic_ incident, till your Excellency hears
again from me. Lansing at present gone on leave. Personally I do not
believe that I shall manage to secure International Commission of
Inquiry. According to present view, main point of dispute is question
of disavowing action of submarine commander. I hope, however, that
after reviewing American evidence, your Excellency will be able
to find formula for such disavowal, agreeable to both Governments,
especially if I can get concurrence of Wilson before press gets
hold of it. Request, therefore, that American correspondents in
Germany be told nothing more than that American evidence being
carefully gone into in Berlin."

(3) CIPHER REPORT

"Cedarhurst, September 28th, 1915.

"The negotiations about the submarine campaign are at a standstill
at present. From the fact that Lansing has not been recalled from
leave and that President Wilson does not seem over-eager to give
an opinion on the proposals which I have put forward for his
consideration, I consider myself justified in concluding that the
Americans do not consider the situation to be any longer critical.
Even the Press is no longer agitated, as in all recent cases of
attack by German submarines. Their commanders have acted quite in
accordance with our assurances. Under these circumstances Mr. Wilson
may possibly fall in with our proposal that the particular case of
the _Arabic_ should be dealt with by an International Commission
of Inquiry. In any case, some means must be found of finishing once
for all with the _Arabic_ and _Lusitania_ incidents;