be accounted for without that assumption. I myself
think the assumption highly improbable. So much I may say, but I cannot
say more. Possibly some day we may be able to check conjecture by facts.
Until then, argument must be inconclusive.

This question of the naval rivalry between Germany and Great Britain
is, however, part of the general question of militarism. And it may be
urged that while during the last fifteen years the British Government has
shown itself favourable to projects of arbitration and of limitation of
armaments, the German Government has consistently opposed them. There is
much truth in this; and it is a good illustration of what I hold to be
indisputable, that the militaristic view of international politics is
much more deeply rooted in Germany than in Great Britain. It is worth
while, however, to remind ourselves a little in detail what the facts
were since they are often misrepresented or exaggerated.

The question of international arbitration was brought forward at the first
Hague Conference in 1899.[2] From the beginning it was recognized on all
sides that it would be idle to propose general compulsory arbitration for
all subjects. No Power would have agreed to it, not Great Britain or
America any more than Germany. On the other hand, projects for creating
an arbitration tribunal, to which nations willing to use it should have
recourse, were brought forward by both the British and the American
representatives. From the beginning, however, it became clear that Count
Muenster, the head of the German delegation, was opposed to any scheme
for encouraging arbitration. "He did not say that he would oppose a
moderate plan of voluntary arbitration, but he insisted that arbitration
must be injurious to Germany; that Germany is prepared for war as no
other country is, or can be; that she can mobilize her army in ten
days; and that neither France, Russia, nor any other Power can do this.
Arbitration, he said, would simply give rival Powers time to put themselves
in readiness, and would, therefore, be a great disadvantage to Germany."
Here is what I should call the militarist view in all its simplicity and
purity, the obstinate, unquestioning belief that war is inevitable, and
the determination to be ready for it at all costs, even at the cost of
rejecting machinery which if adopted might obviate war. The passage has
often been cited as evidence of the German determination to have war. But
I have not so ofte