the beginning for the privatization of agriculture;
and the buildup of a massive overhang of unspent rubles in the hands of
households and enterprises. The regime has vacillated among a series of
ambitious economic policy prescriptions put forth by leading economists
and political leaders. The plans vary from proposals for (a) quick
marketization of the economy; (b) gradual marketization; (c) a period
of retrenchment to ensure a stable base for future marketization; and
(d) a return to disciplined central planning and allocation. The
economy, caught between two systems, is suffering from even greater
mismatches between what is being produced and what would serve the best
interests of enterprises and households. Meanwhile, the seething
nationality problems have been dislocating regional patterns of economic
specialization and pose a further major threat to growth prospects over
the next few years. Official Soviet statistics report GNP fell by 2% in
1990, but the actual decline was substantially greater. Whatever the
numerical decline, it does not capture the increasing disjointures in the
economy evidenced by emptier shelves, longer lines, increased barter, and
widespread strikes.

_#_GNP: approximately $2,660 billion, per capita $9,130;
real growth rate - 2.4% to - 5.0% (1990 est. based on a reconstruction
of official Soviet statistics); note--because of the continued
unraveling of Soviet economic and statistical controls, the estimate
is subject to even greater uncertainties than in earlier years; the
dollar estimates most likely overstate Soviet GNP to some extent because
of an incomplete allowance for the poor quality, narrow assortment, and
low performance characteristics of Soviet goods and services; the
- 2.4% growth figure is based on the application of CIA's usual
estimating methods whereas the - 5.0% figure is corrected for
measurement problems that worsened sharply in 1990

_#_Inflation rate (consumer prices): 14% (1990 est.)

_#_Unemployment rate: official Soviet statistics imply an unemployment
rate of 1 to 2 percent in 1990; USSR's first official unemployment
estimate, however, is acknowledged to be rough

_#_Budget: revenues 422 billion rubles; expenditures 510 billion
rubles, including capital expenditures of 53 billion rubles (1990 est.)

_#_Exports: $109.3 billion (f.o.b., 1989);

commodities--petroleum and petroleum products, natural gas, metals,
wood, agricultural products, and a wide