stantinople,
that Servia would make her way to the Adriatic, and that all possibility
of the expansion of Germany to the southeast would be blocked, and
Germany probably became alarmed over England's intentions--there were
many indications of something close to panic in Germany after it was
generally understood that King Edward figured in the pact with France.

"I, for one, do not believe that the German fears of England were well
grounded; I do not believe that in the excitement the German mind worked
discriminatingly or that it is working with discrimination today. I
think that Germany has presented an extraordinary example of nation-wide
mobmindedness in a situation which offered nothing but ruin through war
and boundless advantages if she sat tight and waited for some one else
to strike the first blow, which, then, probably never would have been
struck.

"So, although I have outlined what I think may fairly be regarded as
some of the economic conditions contributing to the war, I do not think
that it is entirely to be explained by economic causes.

"They fail to account for the actual precipitation of the conflict. I
think that there is no explanation of that, short of recognition of an
abnormal reaction of the German mind to a situation the nature of which
was mistaken, or, at least, exaggerated.

"And, of course, there were other factors concerning which we shall not
know the truth for years, such as the personal influence of individual
minds in the German and other Governments. It will be long before the
complete history of the acts and negligence of diplomats and other
responsible Ministers will be written."

I asked Prof. Giddings if, in his opinion, the struggle is likely to
result in any wide and profound change in the economic life of the
world.

"Yes," he replied, "I think it is sure to. In the first place, for at
least half a generation, and perhaps longer, the producing capital of
the world will be much smaller than it was before the war.

"But in this speculation we must be cautious, because, so far, the
costly war material which has been consumed, such as fortresses
destroyed, guns worn out, ammunition consumed, soldiers' clothing, and
in general food, were principally accumulated and paid for long ago.
They have come out of the world's past production, and their cost
already has been written off.

"The real loss, the new waste, over and above the devastation of Belgium
and other lands, has be