en of labor, productive activity which would have
been carried on during the period of the war had the struggle been
avoided, the destruction of the lives of men in their economic prime,
the maiming of others to the depletion of their future usefulness and
the loss to European fatherhood.

"But if the war lasts a long time, necessitating the general renewal of
ships, fortresses, weapons, and stores, the waste will be enormous, for
the actual money expenditure will then come out of funds newly
accumulated or charged against the future, and not out of those set
aside in the past for war purposes."

One Great Change Occurring.

"Thus one great economic change already is occurring--the devastation
wrought, the destruction of hoarded funds and supplies and of useful
human life.

"There are others which are probable, but also problematical, although I
think we fairly may take them into account.

"Will the European nations, in settlement of their differences through
final terms of peace, simply endeavor to restore the old order, drawing
their lines of demarkation very strictly, enacting, for example, higher
tariffs, thinking that along that line will lie the easiest way of
re-establishing national finances?

"If so, the old contentions will be perpetuated. It will be the old
order of things over again.

"We shall again have the spirit of exclusiveness fostered and the old
suspicions bred. The old intense competition of nation with nation for
trade to the exclusion of other nations from the markets of the world
will return with its attendant inefficiency.

"But, on the other hand, the world will be an immense gainer through the
war if it is followed by a broad and rational review of the whole
situation and an adjustment of the map of Europe with due regard to the
ambitions and legitimate economic opportunities and capabilities of the
various peoples.

"This war may be the greatest good the world has ever known if it leaves
Europe in a mental state disposed to Broaden opportunity, to break down
suspicions, to eliminate barriers, and make commerce much freer than it
has been.

"Then Europe's economic recovery will be rapid, animosities will die
quickly away, and every nation which is now involved will progress with
a new speed, seeing that opportunity is created only through superiority
in fair competition.

"The next possibility, one far more nearly a probability, I think, than
the somewhat Utopian speculation i