n this
difficult position, and are confronted by the momentous choice between
resigning all claim to world power or disputing this claim against
numerically superior enemies. This policy somewhat resembles the
supineness for which England has herself to blame, when she refused her
assistance to the Southern States in the American War of Secession, and
thus allowed a Power to arise in the form of the United States of North
America, which already, although barely fifty years have elapsed,
threatens England's own position as a World Power. But the consequences
of our peace policy hit us harder than England has suffered under her
former American policy. The place of Great Britain as a Great Power is
far more secured by her insular position and her command of the seas
than ours, which is threatened on all sides by more powerful enemies. It
is true that one cannot anticipate success in any war with certainty,
and there was always the possibility during the past forty years that we
might not succeed in conquering France as effectually as we would have
wished. This uncertainty is inseparable from every war. Neither in 1866
nor in 1870 could Bismarck foresee the degree of success which would
fall to him, but he dared to fight. The greatness of the statesman is
shown when at the most favourable moment he has the courage to undertake
what is the necessary and, according to human calculation, the best
course. Just Fate decides the issue.

The second cause of our present position is to be seen in the fact that
we started to build our fleet too late. The chief mistake which we have
made is that, after the year 1889, when we roused ourselves to vote the
Brandenburg type of ship, we sank back until 1897 into a period of
decadence, while complete lack of system prevailed in all matters
concerning the fleet. We have also begun far too late to develop
systematically our coast defences, so that the most essential duties
which spring out of the political situation are unfulfilled, since we
have not foreseen this situation nor prepared for it.

This experience must be a lesson to us in the future. We must never let
the petty cares and needs of the moment blind us to the broad views
which must determine our world policy. We must always adopt in good time
those measures which are seen to be necessary for the future, even
though they make heavy financial calls on our resources.

This is the point of view that we must keep in mind with regard